SIP versus FD illustration — valued 16 October 2026

Source: official NSE Indices NIFTY 50 Total Returns Index history, obtained via https://www.niftyindices.com/BackPage/getTotalReturnIndexString . Cached history through 1 October 2026 from the author's existing STP study, extended through 16 October 2026 with the same official API. Downloaded 17 October 2026. Reinvested dividends included; fees and tax excluded.

Invest Rs10,000 at the first available trading close each month from each chosen starting month, through October 2026. Fractional theoretical TRI units = contribution / TRI on purchase date. Value = accumulated units x TRI at valuation. Annualised return is XIRR, actual date differences / 365. This is an index simulation, not an investable fund NAV or a fund-return claim.

FD comparator: deposit the same Rs10,000 on the identical dates at an illustrative constant 7% effective annual rate, with each deposit growing for its actual holding period. This is a contribution-matched deposit model, not a single lump-sum FD and not a reconstruction of historical bank offers. The rate is an assumption, not a current quoted product rate. Taxes, early withdrawal penalties and changing deposit rates excluded.

Required NIFTY level = current NIFTY price-index close x target corpus / current SIP corpus. Target corpus at rate r = sum of contribution x (1+r)^years since each contribution. For the snapshot sensitivity, TRI changes proportionally with NIFTY, with no elapsed time, extra contributions, dividends or fees. This does not predict a future index level or recovery date. At the FD matching point the corpora are equal; beating requires slightly more. Actual future thresholds change with time, contributions and dividends.

Jan2022 primary example uses every instalment from January 2022 through October 2026. The start date is a clearly labelled calendar-year cohort, not selected for an optimised outcome. All monthly starts since April2020 are supplied in the accompanying CSV to make the counterexample and start-date sensitivity auditable.